Aviation’s role in China’s future

“China’s need for domestic transportation is central to its economic growth plans and
aviation is expected to play a central role.”




That’s the conclusion reached by Bombardier’s Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast for the period 2012-2031. China’s current five-year strategic plan seeks to have more than 80 per cent of its population within 100 km or 1.5 hours of air transportation, the Forecast states. Such a feat would provide air transportation to 96 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) base.

Airports and air traffic control system capacity are major brakes on the growth of commercial aviation in China, the Forecast notes. In addition, current commercial airspace limitations, aircrew shortages and other factors have favored the use (and purchase) of larger jets resulting in congested airspace around China’s largest urban centres.

The Forecast states, “Accordingly, China will need to build aggressively and equip a significant number of new airports – some to relieve air traffic congestion in heavily populated and traveled areas – and still more to develop and extend economic and social links to more remote parts of the country.



“China is therefore expected to require a significant number of 60- to 90- seat regional aircraft to meet this demand, as well as the pilots to fly them, technicians to maintain them and an air traffic control system with which to operate them safely,” notes the Forecast.

China is expected to take delivery of 2,220 new commercial aircraft during the Forecast period. Aircraft with 100 to 149 seats are expected to comprise 63 per cent of those deliveries, followed by 60- to 99-seat aircraft with 36 per cent, and aircraft with 20 to 59 seats at one per cent.


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