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Growing economies and the expanding middle class worldwide will drive demand for travel and new aircraft. Bombardier Aerospace anticipates the delivery of 12,800 commercial aircraft in the 20- to 149-seat segment valued at $630 billion U.S. by 2031. The company’s Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2012-2031 predicts 300 fewer deliveries than forecast in 2011 due mainly to a lower GDP forecast and a sharp increase expected in fuel costs.
Worldwide, Bombardier expects 300 aircraft deliveries in the 20- to 59-seat segment, 5,600 deliveries of aircraft with 60 to 99 seats, and 6,900 deliveries in the 100- to 149-seat segment. Interestingly, turboprop aircraft are expected to comprise 48 per cent of deliveries in the 20- to 99-seat marketplace with 95 per cent of those units in the 60- to 99-seat segment. The forecast notes that this is the deepest market penetration ever by turboprops.
Technical obsolescence, cost inefficiencies and age are driving the expected retirement of 7,000 aircraft – more than 50 per cent of the current fleet – during the forecast period. This, in turn will have a positive impact on the demand for new aircraft. Although high oil prices will continue to challenge airline profitability, the forecast states, the arrival of new, technologically-advanced aircraft that deliver operating cost reductions will accelerate the retirement of older, less fuel-efficient aircraft.
Thumbnail descriptions of the geographic regions covered in the forecast accompany this introduction. The full forecast is available in .pdf format at www.bombardier.com/en/aerospace.
NORTH AMERICA
(including Mexico) |
North America will maintain its leadership position over the course of the next 20 years, and is expected to require more than 4,700 new commercial aircraft, or 37 per cent of world demand.
North America’s large installed fleet base requires constant replenishment and renewal. As air carriers in the region regain financial strength following a period of declining passenger loads, financial failures, bankruptcies, restructurings and consolidations, their attention will focus on cost control strategies that include expanding scope clauses to cover larger aircraft, capacity planning and optimizing their asset use.
One key will be fleet renewal that delivers significant improvements in operating efficiency and flexibility. New aircraft that burn less fuel and deliver other operating efficiencies are certain to be in high demand in the coming cycle of fleet renewal.
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EUROPE
(including Russian and CIS) |
Anticipated deliveries for this region, 2,240 units, are unchanged from Bombardier’s 2011 forecast, as a significant increase in expected Russia and CIS deliveries is offset by projected decline in deliveries in the financially troubled Eurozone.
Airline strategies have focused on cost reduction as well as consolidation through acquisition among larger airlines, which reduces demand for new aircraft. In addition, Europe’s population density, comparatively short travel distances and extensive airport security measures also mean that both rail and road provide significant competition to air travel.
In 2011, the Russian aviation authority announced the grounding of a number of domestically-built aircraft fleets. This action has advanced the retirement of these already ageing fleets, thereby creating an immediate opportunity for both new and used aircraft for the replenishment. As a result, Bombardier has revised its forecast to increase the demand of 60- to 99-seat aircraft by approximately 180 units in last year’s forecast to 320 units.
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ASIA / PACIFIC
(excluding China) |
This region is expected to account for approximately 13 per cent of new aircraft deliveries during the forecast period, largely unchanged from the 2011 forecast and representing approximately 1,710 aircraft against retirement of 790 units, resulting in fleet growth of 920 aircraft, to a total of 2090.
Connections between countries in the region are expected to increase in both number and extent. Larger longerrange aircraft are increasingly required for international routes and, as in most other regions addressed in this forecast and the industry generally, the 100- to 149-seat segment is expected to account for 57 per cent of total deliveries to the region. Smaller, short-haul aircraft will be required for growth and fleet replacement in smaller markets. Growth markets linking major city pairs will be stimulated further by the continued loosening of regulatory restraint, except those relating to aircraft environmental performance, which are expected to remain the strictest in the world. Modern turboprop and jet aircraft which meet these standards will be well positioned for increased acceptance.
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CHNIA
(PRC) |
China’s emergence as an economic powerhouse drives demand for new aircraft and this market is now second only to that of North America. China is expected to take delivery of 2,200 aircraft (including 1,400 in the 100- to 149-seat segment) over the 20- year forecast period.
China will need to aggressively build and equip a significant number of new airports, some to relieve air traffic congestion in heavily populated and travel areas, and still more to develop and extend economic and social links to remote parts of the country.
China is therefore expected to also require a significant number of 60- to 99-seat regional aircraft to meet demand, as well as pilots to fly them, technicians to maintain them and an air traffic control system with which to operate them safely.
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LATIN AMERICA
(including Mexico and Caribbean) |
Latin America’s economic growth is expected to be among the highest at an average 4.1 per cent for the period, which should result in a medium-high growth environment for air travel and deliveries of new aircraft, which this forecast places at 930 total units.
The Latin American region is increasingly home to world-scale events such as the 2014 FIFA World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympic Games. These can be expected to boost regional economies and to energize the development of infrastructure to support air travel growth.
In addition, the recent growth of lowfare air carriers is helping to make air travel much more accessible to the population, largely through the use of regional jets and turboprops and single-aisle mainline jet aircraft.
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AFRICA and THE MIDDLE EAST |
Despite political uncertainty, economic growth is expected to be solid and slightly above the world average during the forecast period, at 3.8 per cent CAGR in the Middle East and 4.4 per cent in Africa.
As in other regions, 100- to 149-seat airliners will dominate new aircraft deliveries to this region, and are expected to account for 600 of the 970 total deliveries. Of the 970 units, 420 would be delivered to the Middle East and 550 to Africa.
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